People Thought Covid-19 Was Relatively Harmless for Younger Adults. They Were Wrong. --NYTimes op-ed

The largest burden of Covid-19 has undoubtedly fallen on people older than 65; they account for around 80 percent of deaths in the United States. But if we momentarily eclipse that from our mind’s eye, something else becomes visible: The corona of this virus.

Young adults are dying at historic rates. In research published on Wednesday in the Journal of the American Medical Association, we found that among U.S. adults ages 25 to 44, from March through the end of July, there were almost 12,000 more deaths than were expected based on historical norms.

In fact, July appears to have been the deadliest month among this age group in modern American history. Over the past 20 years, an average of 11,000 young American adults died each July. This year that number swelled to over 16,000.

The trends continued this fall. Based on prior trends, around 154,000 in this demographic had been projected to die in 2020. We surpassed that total in mid-November. Even if death rates suddenly return to normal in December — and we know that they will not — we would anticipate well over 170,000 deaths among U.S. adults in this demographic by the end of 2020.

While detailed data are not yet available for all areas, we know Covid-19 is the driving force behind these excess deaths. Consider New York State. In April and May, Covid-19 killed 1,081 adults ages 20 to 49, according to statistics we gathered from the New York State Health Department. Remarkably, this figure towers over the state’s usual leading cause of death in that age group — unintentional accidents including drug overdoses and road accidents — which combined to cause 495 deaths in this demographic during April and May of 2018, the most recent year for which data are available to the public.

After the Northeast’s horrific first surge this spring subsided, similar trends began to become apparent in other regions over the summer. As caseloads among the younger population rose nationwide, Covid-19 became a leading cause of death among younger adults in other regions. While deaths from the virus temporarily exceeded opioid deaths among young adults in some areas this year, we are also concerned that unintentional overdose deaths have increased during the pandemic as well. ...